The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for India, projecting a GDP growth rate of 6.8% for the current year, up from its previous estimate of 6.5% in January. This upward revision is attributed to bullish domestic demand conditions and the country’s expanding working-age population.
India maintains its position as the world’s fastest-growing economy, surpassing China’s growth projection of 4.6% for the same period.
According to the latest edition of the World Economic Outlook released by the IMF ahead of its annual spring meetings, India’s robust growth is expected to continue at 6.8% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. This resilience is driven by sustained domestic demand and a growing working-age population.
Meanwhile, growth in emerging and developing Asia is anticipated to moderate slightly, from an estimated 5.6% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025, reflecting a minor upward adjustment compared to the January 2024 update.
The IMF’s January update had initially projected a 6.5% growth rate for India in 2024. The current forecast for 2024 is revised upward by 0.1 percentage points from the January update and by 0.3 percentage points from the October 2023 report.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, emphasized the importance of policymakers focusing on measures to enhance economic resilience, such as strengthening government finances and revitalizing growth prospects. Despite global economic challenges, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, Gourinchas noted that the global economy remains resilient, with steady growth and moderating inflation.
While the US economy has surpassed its pre-pandemic trend, Gourinchas highlighted potential challenges for low-income developing countries still grappling with the aftermath of the pandemic and rising costs of living. He also pointed out lingering effects on China’s economy due to the downturn in its property sector and emphasized the need to address domestic demand issues to avoid exacerbating trade tensions.